Ian Bremmer is Brilliant

I spent lunch earlier this week at MSPAC listening to Ian Bremmer, Founder of the Eurasia Group speak on his recently released book, The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall.

I knew the basic thesis of The J Curve from the review published in The Economist a few weeks back.  The basis of the book starts with my terrible handmade chart.

On the Y axis is the relative stability of a nation.  On the X axis is the openness of that nation.  Where is the US?  Far to the right.  Where is North Korea?  Far to the left.  Where was Iraq under Hussein?  Far to the left.  Where is it now?  At the base of the curve.

The implications of this curve are manifold:

• To take a closed society and open it up, the nation must go through a period of relatively less stability.
• The curve is steeper on the left.  When your society is at its weakest point (the bottom of the curve), you can restore stability much more rapidly by closing society than by opening it.
• Isolation is not an effective means for achieving regime change in closed societies.  Why?  Because when you’re on the little piece of the curve at the left, enforcing economic sanctions further isolates your society.  What does that lead to?  Not less stability; more.
• You can change directions on the curve (e.g. Iran after the rise of Ahmadinejad).

I must say, I’m writing this prior to reading the book.  I’ve got the book to read this weekend and am really looking forward to it.

All of that being said, I was deeply impressed by Bremmer’s ability to effortlessly move between individual countries and regions while at the same time being deeply knowledgeable about myriad individual political situations within nations.

If you’re interested in the business of politics, I highly recommend reading this diary written by Bremmer for Slate covering a week at Eurasia Group.